A Minnesota study shows cost savings and energy independence are the key motivational drivers of heat pump adoption.
Most Western homes still run on gas or oil fuels whose price is determined by global energy markets rather than at home. In H1 2025, heat pumps overtook gas boilers as the most-installed heating system in Germany for the first time. Yet Germany has only 54 heat pumps per 1,000 households. Norway has more than 600.
The barrier is often behavioural rather than technical. According to Keleher and Hansen-Connell, over 75% of homeowners in the coldest US regions knew little to nothing about heat pumps. Status Quo Bias does the rest: when the old boiler breaks, people replace it with the same thing.
Working with the Minnesota Air Source Heat Pump Collaborative, researchers tested a range of promotional messages: comfort, reliability, climate impact, rebates. None outperformed one simple comparison: „Heat pumps are 2 to 4 times more efficient than conventional heating systems.“
A reference point people can calculate with immediately. The study tested cost framing explicitly but autonomy comes with it for free: understand the efficiency gap, and you understand that your heating bill is no longer hostage to global gas markets.
German renovation research confirms both motivators. Reducing heating costs is the #1 driver for energy upgrades. Cost framing and autonomy framing work together. Climate messaging, by contrast, should be used sparingly. Only a small minority named carbon emissions as their key motivational driver, even among eco-conscious homeowners.
The results: Messaging preferences were consistent across all segments — no targeting required. Broad awareness outperformed precision messaging. Once the financial case is understood, adoption accelerates. The tipping point has arrived. Communication just needs to catch up.
The Business Case: Homeowners are ready to act on financial self-interest and protect family finances from price volatility they cannot control. They just need the right reference point to do the maths.
Have you worked on campaigns for heat pumps or home energy upgrades?
We’d love to hear what worked: hello@green-nudges.com
From Matthias Höppner from the Green Nudges Consulting team, drawing on a 2024 study by Anna Keleher (The Behavioral Insights Team Americas) and Maddie Hansen-Connell (Center for Energy and Environment), conducted with the Minnesota Air Source Heat Pump Collaborative, complemented by market data from Norway, Germany, and the US: Rewiring America (2023), Zukunft Altbau/BDH (2025), and the toom Baumarkt/forsa survey (2025).
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